Thursday, October 16, 2008

To Drill or not to drill?

Ok, the oil crisis may be over. Or it may not. But what can we do about the next oil crisis?

The issue of drilling offshore and in wilderness areas has come up. But what are the advantages? Well, the oil temporarily alleviates the oil crisis, temporarily lowering fuel prices.

But long term, the oil in the new fields will run out. And there are no spare drilling ships available anyway. By the time the drilling ships strike oil, ten or more years might have elapsed. Not much use. So my solution? Leave it in the ground. Yes, leave it in the ground, and wait till the Middle East runs out of oil. By then, the oil field will be even more profitable, drilling technology will have advanced, making it cheaper and safer, and you still have oil. And making the oil crisis last longer will give greater impetus for car manufacturers to make more fuel efficient cars, and for car buyers to buy them. Which means, that long term, what little oil lies offshore and under wilderness areas, will go further once it IS drilled. And those arctic and antarctic wilderness areas will all have been destroyed by global warming anyway. So no environmental harm done.

Monday, October 13, 2008

Do your bit in the meltdown crisis

My first halfassed solution may not be something that everybody can do.

The Subprime Mortgage meltdown is currently eviscerating whole neighborhoods in the US, but if you have several thousand dollars, you can help out a whole neighborhood and become a land baron at the same time.

What to do? Simple. Banks are forclosing on a massive number of properties. Select an area that has a large number of people whose mortgages are foreclosing, and buy the houses out. They will go for a pittance. Then, for goodness sake, KEEP THE HOUSES OCCUPIED. Charge them rents that are appropriate for the new value of the houses. Look at it this way: You got a bargain, why shouldnt they get a bargain, by paying a rent that is a very small proportion of what they were paying for these houses.Since nobody is buying, you should get them at a steal. It is a buyers market, EVERYTHING IS UNDERVALUED. But what about the empty blocks and abandoned properties that litter some of these neighborhoods? You can buy the empty blocks and abandoned houses that are nearby, and convert derelict houses into community centres or something or pull them down,and give the neighborhood a park. These blocks are worthless as they are, but parks raise the value of housing. By putting a bit of money into the community, you will be keeping the value of the land up (at a point where the value is plummeting because nobody is buying) and if you keep it until the crisis is over, you can make a mint, while keeping a whole stack of low income people in housing. By a coordinated effort (if you have the cash) you could keep a whole neighbourhood alive, and cause it to ride out the crisis. But only if you have the cash. It would be massively foolish to borrow any money at this point.

Now because they have been scrimping and saving to pay for the mortgage, once the burden of the mortgage is relieved, they are free to spend their money in their own community, money that was going to waste in paying off one of these ripoff mortgages. So the more households you save, the more the whole community benefits.

The only problem is with my plan is, (my halfbaked plans usually have a downside) to really make any impact, you would need a few million dollars. And you will have to try to do this in a community with people with relatively high incomes and people with stable jobs. Some communities may be beyond saving. You do not want to become a slum lord. At the end of it, you want to come out of it with an investment that can, once the crisis is well and truly over, pay off both monetarily and in terms of a community who would be forever in your debt. Well not literally, Paying rent at least. Not massive rents, just enough to bring a pretty good dividend for a relatively small investment.

Feel free to nitpick my solution, I assure you it isn't properly thought out and propably will have flaws that you could drive a truck through. Drive away.